CAN ANYONE REALLY PREDICT THE FUTURE?

It is the time of year that investment fund managers review the last twelve months usually with explanations on why the predictions were not quite as accurate as expected and then move onto the predictions for the coming year. As always there was a wide variety of opinions at the beginning of 2015 many of which were wide of the mark. It won’t be much different this year.

The problem is that most predictions sound good and reasons plausible. But hindsight is a great thing and it is obvious to see why even the most sensible predictions did not come true. There are so many variables that predicting the future of the investment market is really difficult, if not impossible.

That is why we advocate a portfolio of index tracker funds to capture the natural market returns. Widely diversified around the globe. This provides a robust strategy for delivering investment returns.

Active investors can do better, and some will do better some of the time. But if some fund managers consistently did better, don’t you think that with so much scrutiny we would all know who they were?